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Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds, prediction: 2024 NBA Western Conference finals Game 5 picks from proven model - CBSSports.com

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The No. 3 seed Minnesota Timberwolves will try to stave off elimination for a second time when they host the No. 5 seed Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on Thursday. No team has ever erased a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series in the NBA playoffs, and only 15 of 155 have forced a Game 6. Minnesota stayed alive on Tuesday with a 105-100 road win after dropping the first three games of the series by single digits. Dallas is looking to clinch a trip to the NBA Finals against the Boston Celtics, who already won the East. Luka Doncic (knee/ankle) and Dereck Lively II (neck) are questionable for Dallas, while Mike Conley (calf) is questionable for Minnesota.

Tip-off for Game 5 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET from the Target Center in Minneapolis. SportsLine consensus lists Minnesota as a 5-point favorite in the latest Timberwolves vs. Mavericks odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 209.5. Before making any Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks or NBA playoff predictions, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven SportsLine Projection Model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has dialed in on Timberwolves vs. Mavericks in Game 5 of the Western Conference finals and locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves:

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks spread: Minnesota -5Timberwolves vs. Mavericks over/under: 209.5 pointsTimberwolves vs. Mavericks money line: Minnesota -196, Dallas +163MIN: Timberwolves led the NBA in defensive efficiency (108.4) during the regular seasonDAL: Doncic leads all players in assists per game (9.1) during the playoffsTimberwolves vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Timberwolves can cover 

Timberwolves forward Karl-Anthony Towns struggled in the first three games of the series, but he bounced back with an outstanding performance in Game 4. He shot 9 of 13 from the floor and 4 of 5 from 3-point range, finishing with 25 points and five rebounds. Star guard Anthony Edwards had 29 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists, shooting 11 of 25 overall.

Doncic and Kyrie Irving had relatively lackluster performances for the Mavericks, shooting a combined 13 of 39 with seven total turnovers. The Mavericks were without Lively, who is averaging 8.5 points and 7.1 rebounds per game this postseason. Dallas went just 15-12 when Lively was not in the lineup during the regular season, and he is questionable for Thursday's contest. See which team to pick here.

Why the Mavericks can cover 

Dallas has a dynamic duo in Doncic and Irving. The two guards are averaging a combined 56.3 points, 13.5 assists and 13.0 rebounds against Minnesota's No. 1-rated defense. In Game 4 on Tuesday, Doncic had a triple-double, with 28 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists.

Doncic, Irving and the rest of the Mavericks will face a Timberwolves team that has struggled at home during the postseason. Minnesota is just 3-4 at the Target Center during the playoffs, which includes two losses to the Mavericks. By contrast, the Timberwolves are 6-2 on the road in the postseason. See which team to pick here.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Mavericks picks      

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 208 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.

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